Friday, December 05, 2008

SHTF: Guns

Oregon - here

Chicago - here

Nationally - here

So what does it all mean and what are the effects not covered anywhere else but here?

1) More guns in the hands of more people. Sellers are reporting loads of first time buyers. It is estimated that there are some 300 million guns in private hands in the U.S. and those are owned by roughly 80 million Americans. That number has obviously grown. Those buyers will also be purchasing more ammo definitely. And a fair number will also sign up for concealed carry classes and licenses. And going to gun ranges to practice. There is an economic bubble to this nobody has noted yet. I think the effect will be in the billions of dollars.

2) Aftershock in the gun market. Supplies of many types of firearms are down to all time lows, some are two years out for restock to dealers. Ammunition, especially from overseas vendors, is nearly exhausted.

Here is a scary scenario to consider. Right now, firearms manufacturers cannot be sued if someone uses one of their products to commit a crime. Also, a lot of surplus ammunition and firearms come from overseas.

If the next Congress changes the laws and allows firearms manufacturers to be sued again AND bans the importation of foreign ammunition and firearms (both possibilities), then the guns and ammo which stock has been depleted by record sales may never return to the levels we have been used to. Ever. What you have now may be all you will ever have.

3) However, on the other hand, let's think what may happen with next years firearms market. With the economy taking the hits it has been this year, many of today's gun buyers will be tomorrow's desperate gun sellers. There is a real possibility of a fantastic buyers market for AR, AK, SKS and WASR as soon as next summer as cash strapped gun owners unload, at bargain basement prices, their recently purchased AR or AK rifle. Of course, these deals will only be available for buyers with cash and very likely under the table.

4) Gun dealers are reporting empty shelves and racks. For the past month, we have seen and expected the run on AR and AK type rifles, certain ammunition stocks like .223 and .308 and handguns. However, some gun shops are reporting low stocks on common shotguns, rifles and handguns including .22!

Turns out, buyer unable to purchase a AR15 are instead buying something, anything else to take its place. A 30.06 bolt gun, a .22 semi or a 12 gauge home defense pump for instance.

There may be time shortly after Christmas where any gun is hard to find.

Which brings us to my final points.

Remember the book Lucifers Hammer by Niven and Pournelle?

One of the central characters realizes almost too late that he has not stocked up for the big comet landing. When he went out to the gun store, the only thing left was a silly .22. bolt action target pistol.

Don't let this happen to you next spring.

Any gun is better than no gun the day after, but having the best and right gun is better.

And having enough ammunition, while a box of 50 is good, having 500, 1000 or 2000 rounds is better.

And getting your rifle, pistol or shotgun should be done responsibly in regards to your finances, having that purchase covered now is better.

Good luck,

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