Prepare: START Treaty will probably pass

The latest Washington DC treaty to lower the number of nuclear weapons the US possesses, START, will probably pass the Senate today. The treaty will limit the number of nuclear warheads for both the USA and Russian Federation to 1500 (down from 2250) and the number of launchers to 800 total land, sea and air.

START will also resume inspections by both sides of each other's nuclear arsenal and launchers.

A number of characters will be doing a happy dance when this treaty gets passed.

Here is what is not covered in the START treaty.

- There is nothing in the treaty about the number of nuclear weapons and launchers that China can have, nor about any sort of inspection for their growing nuclear arsenal.

- There is nothing in the treaty about limiting new countries from obtaining nuclear weapons. Right now the list of countries who have produced crude weapons or are working dillegently on them includes North Korea, Venezuela, Myamar, and Iran.

- There is nothing in the treaty which limits the USA or Russia from assisting another country with the construction or design of nuclear weapons. Further, there is nothing in the treaty which limits either country from new military treaties which can be used to increase the potential nuclear offensive capability of a new alliance.

- There is nothing about the treaty first inspecting the working capability of either country and places limits based upon that capability. Thus, one country may only have 600 functioning launchers meaning this treaty is only window dressing.

 - There is nothing in this treaty which addresses the real potential cause for nuclear war which is a terrorist organization, backed by legitimate states, using nuclear devices against the USA or Russia.

At this point, the USA and Russia have successfully, over the past twenty years, reduced the number of functioning nuclear weapons and launchers they both have. That's great if the largest problem in the world is the potential of a nuclear war between the USA and the Russian Federation.

However, in 2010, this situation is not the problem the world faces today.

The real issue with nuclear proliferation today is not between the USA and Russia, but with dozens of other nations which are actively and agressively working on building nuclear capability. If the USA and Russia eliminate too much of their working nuclear deterrent, they may find themselves in the near future at the mercy of a collaboration between nuclear armed terror groups and rogue nations or even a growing nuclear armed nation like China.

At some point, those doing the happy dance with the signature of this START treaty had better start recognizing that the real danger comes from those not in the room on signing day.

Prepare: New Nuclear War Preparedness Guide FedGov

There is a new nuclear preparedness guide from the FedGov and sponsored by a group called the National Association of Government Communicators.

Check it out here. It's in PDF format which means you will need Adobe reader which is free.

In case you don't have the time, here's a synopsis of the report.

- A nuclear detonation occuring in the USA is possible due to proliferation and terrorists.

- Such an event would be horrific and communication with the populace by the government at all levels would be important.

- Several suggestions about what to do, i.e. where to shelter, in the event of a nuclear detonation.

- How to deal with decontamination, radiation illness, food and water concerns.

- What to expect from the government at all levels.

- Sample statements for local, state and federal government spokespersons (which was interesting - I hope I never hear them).

There were some very frustrating statements in the report.

- Constant reminders for government leaders to reassure people that all would be well.

- Suggestions that the populace consider volunteering their time or donating to the Red Cross in the event of a nuclear detonation or war complete with URL of related websites.

- The most annoying line "Will shelters be available for people instructed to evacuate?"
"Yes, there will be public shelters with food, medicine, etc".

Reminder - there are no stocked public shelters in the event of a nuclear detonation. They were dismantled years ago and never replaced.

What was missing? The real responses by the government to a disaster of this magnitude...

- There will be martial law in effected areas if not completely nationwide.

- Despite the fact that the attack came from an enemy, the American people will be the ones penalized. Consider all the actions taken against Americans since 9/11 for our "safety". Been on an airplane lately?

- Civil rights will be curtailed in a post-nuclear America and probably will be off the table for awhile.

- Civilains will be on their own for most of their needs. The government has shelters however.

An interesting report none the less and worthy of review. I can only wonder why this document and related news reports have been so widely noted lately and can only believe they are due to the federal government's push for the new START treaty with Russia.


 

Prepare: NYT - Nuclear Strike is survivable

I woke up today in a different world. Dogs and cats were friends. People liked New Coke. Heck had frozen over.

There in the New York Times was this article about nuclear war and how people could survive it or at least increase their survivability by simply staying put and taking shelter rather than fleeing.

Since the 1970's, the mainstream media has marched the public to the drumbeat of the repeated message - "Nuclear war, no matter how large or small, will result in the complete destruction of the earth and the death of all people. The world will end and there is no point in attempting to prepare for or survive a nuclear war as the resulting world will be worse than death".

Now this.

Administration officials argue that the cold war created an unrealistic sense of fatalism about a terrorist nuclear attack. “It’s more survivable than most people think,” said an official deeply involved in the planning, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “The key is avoiding nuclear fallout.”


The only sense of fatalism came from the media. Ordinary citizens built home fallout shelters and stocked their basements. The government, especially under Kennedy, planned and stocked thousands of public shelters across the country. It was the news media who propogated the myth that all would die horrible deaths regardless of their preparations.

“We have to get past the mental block that says it’s too terrible to think about,” W. Craig Fugate, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said in an interview. “We have to be ready to deal with it” and help people learn how to “best protect themselves.”


Good gravy. They actually want us to do something about it ourselves rather than wait for Uncle Sugar and his merry band of FEMA friends to show up, hand out bottled water and debit cards and make the problems all go away?

What is sad about this is that in the 1980's, Cresson Kearney produced a book which outlined research from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory about surviving nuclear war. The media and several prominent politicians quickly dismissed it as their own conventional wisdom maintained that nobody would survive a nuclear war and that nuclear disarmament, by the USA, only of course, was the only option to avoiding nuclear destruction.

Now this.

It could be that the administration, pushing for a new START treaty with Russia, wants to frame the nuclear war thing again in the media as a way to get approval for their efforts.  Everything is politics of course.

And other than producing the pamphlet outlined in the NYT article, I doubt the federal government will revive the public shelter program, Civil Defense or shelter stocking.

However, let's not forget that there are now more nations with nuclear weapons and nuclear weapon manufacturing capability than there was as late as the 1980's and more nations will soon join them. We are in an arms race not between two nations, but between thirty or forty.

It's great the government wants to talk about nuclear war preparedness again, but remember, they only want to have a conversation. Talk is cheap. Real preparedness starts with you right now.

SHTF: What If Nuclear War Books

I spent part of the weekend researching Civil Defense again as well as other nuclear war subjects. It amazes me that in this day and age when we have nearly a dozen nuclear powers (up from five during the Cold War) our leaders still hope they magically make the problem go away with letters and meetings. They are not succeeding (look at the increase of members in the "club") and instead should focus some attention on dealing with the possibility somebody may get the idea of detonation one on someone else.

Along the way, I was reminded of two books which deal with the outcome of nuclear war and the effect on America and the rest of the world.

Resurrection Day by Brendan DuBois was a strange book I recall seeing in the book store when it came out and which deals with America in 1972 - ten years after the Cuban Missile Crisis developed into full scale nuclear war between the USA and Soviet Union. Fortunately, the event never happened, but the author takes to possible ball and runs with it.

America, post-nuclear war, is a third world nation receiving financial aid from Great Britain and a shadow of its former self. With several cities nearest to military bases circa 1962 destroyed or heavily damaged, most of the US is limping along trying to get by under continued martial law.

The story involves a reporter's attempt to uncover what actually occured behind the scenes in October 1962 which led to war. Did President Kennedy barrel headlong into the conflaguration, or was it due to some behind the scenes manipulation by others? Along the way, the reporter, with the aid of a British agent, also uncovers a sinister, secret plot by the UK to rejoin the US to the Empire. Interesting take on the moment the US and the Soviet Union almost came to war.

The other book, WarDay by Whitney Streiber, concerns the post-nuclear US following a preemptive, late 80's attack by the Soviets. Again, the story follows a reporter a decade after the war as he and a companion travel the United States recording what has happened to the rest of the country.

With society dependent upon pre-electronic ignition vehicles (war EMP took out modern cars), letter writing instead of telephones, and a gold based currency, the main characters venture across a hazardous and varied country.

The US is divided unintentionally into different regions. Some, like Aztlan, are semi-autonomous territories operating outside of the federal government, yet recognized by foreign powers. Others, like California, are the new seat of the federal government and which exist under strict police powers to keep illegal aliens (from the rest of the USA) out.

WarDay reminded me of a personal story at the time of publication where a co-worker, upon completing the book, went out and purchased a used, pre-electronic 1960's pickup truck and a few ounces of gold as a hedge against the suggested events of WarDay. Needless to say, both purchases were based upon his own "take aways" from the book. It was that convincing of a story.

Both books, while somewhat dated, make the reader think about plausible scenarios and how they could come to fruition again.  Both are excellent reads and are good suggestions for Christmas gifts for the "Don't Get it (Yet)" in your household as they are mainstream published works.

Pick up both at Amazon

Prepare: The spectre of nuclear war

 The meeting in New York this week between several nations discussing the proliferation and threat of nuclear weapons brings up today's post. The threat of nuclear war is still with us, but is far different than it was originally.

In 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the possibility of full scale nuclear war appeared imminent, here is what the family of the time faced. Dad might be a few miles away at the factory or office, or maybe downtown whereas the family lived in one of the new tract home suburbs popping up across the United States.

A fallout shelter might have been in the basement or perhaps in the backyard if they had the time or money. It was stocked with cans of Campbells Soup, powdered milk and Sanka instant coffee. In the event of a nuclear attack, Civil Defense sirens would sound their low warbling tone, and radio stations would switch over to the Conelrad system with the purpose of instructing listeners of what actions to take.

An nuclear attack on the US in 1962 would have been carried out with long range bombers, some short range submarine launched missiles and a several intercontinental ballistic missiles. The US would have had anywhere between twenty minutes to an hour or more before a bomb might land near their location. At the same time, the US would have scrambled hundreds of bombers from across the US and launched its own intercontinental ballistic missiles once confirmation was received. Submarines would have moved to launch positions and wait for the second or third salvo. Some US Navy ships would do the same.

1962 Dad may have time to get home and get the family to the shelter. Mother would have filled water containers and collected more canned food from the kitchen. Sissy would get her favorite doll and Junior his baseball glove. Dad would have collected a flashlight, batteries and maybe a portable AM radio and placed them in the shelter. The family might have to spend as much as two weeks in the shelter to avoid fallout.

If Dad could not get home, or if other family members were away, they might have had to shelter in one of the public fallout shelters found in many office and public buildings. There, they would have access to basic medical supplies, energy biscuits, canned water and other supplies put in place by the Federal Government Office of Civil Defense.

Today would be a different situation. Very few countries possess the ability to launch multiple nuclear devce bearing vehicles at the US. In today's terrorist attack world, a nuclear device may be smuggled into the country and detonated in a van or storage container. The nuclear weapon may actually only be a conventional bomb with nuclear material creating a "dirty bomb" instead.

In this case, there would not be any advance notice or time for preparation. If a country did launch an attack on the US, most people do not have a fallout shelter or access to one. The US Civil Defense Department was renamed FEMA and in the past thirty years, has removed nearly all Civil Defense supplies and closed public shelters. Even the old Fallout Shelter signs have been taken down.

People who used to work in the same communities they lived in, now may be 40,50 or 60 miles away from home. Mom and Dad both work these days and Junior and Sissy might be at school, an activity or at a sitters home. Basically, the whole family could very well be miles apart when an attack happens. Further, as 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina showed, a nuclear attack would quickly overwhelm city and public services nationwide and the government may be days away from any response.


In a nutshell, let's hope that the world powers work out a good way to avoid nuclear war, rather than make it a possible reality. Simply put, we are not ready and as a society, would most likely not survive.

Do you have food insurance?