SHTF: Worse Case Scenarios - How things turned out

A final chapter to Worse Case Scenario.

Best Case Scenario - Case One - Part One here

Now that you know how things went in the civilized world, you go to your master drawing room and begin making plans for the rest of the world. You take out a map of the United States and start setting boundries for your new nation. Naturally, it will be named after you.

You then draw borders around other areas, smaller than yours of course, and name them for the men in your group. After all, they should get a piece of the pie. Your plan is to conquer one area, yours, before allowing your men to see what their territory holds.

Sitting down with a snifter of brandy from your stores, you imagine the world before you. Stores full of loot. Guns, booze, gold all waiting for your greedy hands. Surely a few people have survived besides your group. To them, you will seem like a savior. That is, until you announce that from henceforth they will be serving you as their master and leader.

It is then you hear the door to your drawing room open quietly. Without turning the large leather chair you are seated in, you shout "I thought I told you I was not to be disturbed!".

"Don't worry, I won't be long" says a cat like voice. You turn and see your wife standing beside the chair. In her hand, a three foot long katana, a samurai sword. As she plunges it into you she whispers "A woman can lead as well as a man."

As your life ebbs away, you watch as she sweeps your map aside to the floor and pulls out a new one and places it on the desk.

Worse case scenario - Case Two - Part one here

Within seconds the two objects fall to the earth. One of two objects, both manufactured over thirty years ago in an eastern land once ruled by the hammer and sickle, fails to detonate but merely lands in an open field and the impact buries it some thirty feet into the soft soil.

The other lands in the heart of downtown and explodes. Within one second, every structure within one half mile is utterly destroyed. Within two seconds, another half miles is heavily damaged and so it goes.

You are still on foot now a few miles from your home. You see your shadow momentarily on the sidewalk before you and stumble by the sight. Unfortunately, your shoes are very worn by this time and you trip over the flapping sole of your $150.00 loafers.

Fate smiled on you as your fall rolls you of the side of the road and into a ditch. Just then the shockwave, greatly diminished due to your distance, but still deadly, passes over your head. The thermal heat is still deadly and a house across the street smolders as the paint catches fire. You don't feel a thing with the exception of the shock as it passes overhead.

You pull your hands and arms over your head and pray for the destruction to end. Within seconds after it starts, the actual detonation is over. After what seems like years, you slowly life your head and look around you. The damage is not that much considering that you are more than 15 miles from ground zero, but it is clear that a bomb of some kind or another has gone off.

You get up from the ditch and quickly start heading towards your house. The loafer is still flapping on your foot, so you kick it off along with the other and run off in your stockinged feet.

Your wife meanwhile, has made it within a block of the children's school when the bomb goes off. She is shielded by a number of buildings and does not directly see the blast but feels the shockwave and heat. She manages to drop behind a retaining wall before any object can hit her though.

When she hits the ground, she hears a shriek nearby. Once the shockwave passes her by, she goes towards the sound and sees your daughter and son crouched behind a stone wall in front of a home.

She grabs both of them in an embrace and says a quick prayer of thanks for their safety. With no time to lose, three head quickly towards their home not knowing where else or what else to do.

In the street in front of their home, the family is reunited. You know you have no car and with nuclear destruction upon you, there is little you can do in your home. Suddenly, your neighbor, that cranky old man and his wife come out of their garage.

They wave you inside and tell you to get inside their old green camper top pickup truck. "There's no time to waste!" the old man implores. "If we get on the road right now we can get far enough away from the fallout!".

Fallout? Get away? It makes no sense but your wife and children are looking at you for guidance. You realize the errors of your ways and turn to your neighbor.

"Thank you. Let me grab some shoes and a change of clothes for everyone and let's get out of here".

In a few moments, you and your family are on the road away from the immediate destruction. Your destination is your neighbor's brother's farm one hundred miles away. He is described as a bit of a kook, having bought forty acres of "junk land" and lived there for the past twenty years. But he is self sufficient and would welcome the extra help.

Life comes at us at odd times and in strange ways. Worse case scenarios can turn into better solutions and vice versa. Get ready, get prepared and look out for those curve balls.

SHTF: Raiders

The house was well off the beaten path, but with things being the way they were, it was only a matter of time until the vermin fleeing the cities found their way here. There were 7 of them and only one was injured from their last raid. That was another remote farm a few miles away. When the food ran out, the raiders moved on. The raiders spread out and moved in quietly. The evolution of their occupation taught them hard lessons and they adapted quickly. The family dog was first to go. Then the front door kicked in while other attackers moved in simultaneously against the back door and through two windows. A man, the father no doubt, barely had time to lift his shotgun before he was gunned down. A boy no more than 12 went for a .22. rifle on the wall, but he was overpowered before it could be put to use. The mother and a teen aged daughter clung to each other in the corner. Benefits of the job thought the raiders as they closed in...

In the post-SHTF world, raiders will be as common as roaches in many place. They will prowl the torn cities, patrol the highways and roads and sweep through small communities and farm towns in their quest for food, supplies, weapons and victims.

Authorities will be non-existent, only found in certain locations or for hire as mercenaries. I would not be surprised to see some authority groups break down into raiders themselves justifying their actions as necessary.

The post SHTF raider
Early raiders will evolve from a few demographics.

- City dwellers while escaping starvation in their former urban homes see the country side, suburbs and small towns as refuges and supply stations while they move from one location to another. Groups will form, break up and reform as authority figures establish themselves over others.

- Convicts, criminals, and gangs which continue their activities unabated.

- As noted above, authorities cut off from a central command or realizing the futility of their original mission will raid and establish territories to "protect" the local populations. Also, some governments, local and otherwise, may find their raids as "resource allocation and procurement".

Emergency Preparedness and Ambushes
The only defense is to wipe them out before they do the same to you and yours. A good defense is the first priority.

Location is everything

Don't give raiders a chance to attack you if they cannot find you first.
You can hide almost anywhere, but remote and rural is the best bet. Your retreat should be hidden from main roads with nothing (a big gate with Barnes Ranch on top is not advised) alerting passerby's to its identity. A dirt road can be made to look unused and less traveled.
Keep vehicles hidden and off the roads. When traveling from and returning to the retreat, take roundabout ways and alter them frequently.
Keep trees and brush heavy nearest the road to your retreat. Don't let them see a cozy house on top of a bare hillside 100 yards from the road.

Use natural landmarks to your advantage


A nearby hill should be modified with a hidden and camouflaged observation post with views 360 degrees available. The best and most able marksmen should occupy this spot with emergency communications equipment 24/7.
Rocks and trees should be marked around the retreat with ranges and setup as defensive positions. Remember, a raider will be using defensive positions facing the retreat - don't allow them any assistance.
Movement outside of the defensive parameter should be done through below ground or ground level paths (tunnels or ditches) and travelers should be in full camouflage or "gilly" suits.
Distances from the retreat in all directions should be measured and appropriate weapons assigned to the measurements. A shotgun is useless on a target at 400 yards.

Home preparation

The home should have stout doors with cross bars.
All windows should have shutters (metal preferred) and bars.
There should be at least three means of leaving and entering the home.
An escape route (a tunnel is best) for retreat should be in place with a meet up place nearby assigned.
Bug out bags should be maintained in the event some or all of the retreat residents have to escape.
Caches of supplies should be stored off site as well.
Call signals will be in effect for all communications even for the youngest members of the retreat.
Firearms will be worn by all adults and responsible teens at all times. The worse situation is to have guns locked up or in a central location. Needless to say, firearm training is mandatory and ongoing for all.
Have a 6 inch painted PVC pipe running along the ridge of the roof. Put 1 inch holes spaced a few inches apart in the pipe and connect a hose to each end. In the event of firebombs, the water can be run through the pipe to water the roof. Keep extinguishers, sand and buckets handy inside for the same purpose.
Obviously keep plenty of water and food inside the home in the event of a siege.

Attackers will use distance and stealth

Attack doctrine calls for one or two long distance shooters to "pin the defenders down" while others move in close.
Spread out your defenders using your Observation Post and hidden travel paths to work behind the attackers. Attack them and put their plans off.
Be prepared to use less than orthodox means to repel an attack. Historically defenders have used mines, booby traps, chemicals, fumes, flames and liquids against attackers successfully.
Have an early warning system in place of the observation post, communications with other nearby residents, trip wires and noise alarms.

Safety in numbers

Our scenario above might have been different if the family had joined up with two or three other families and shared resources and defense. Raiders are like any other predator; they look for weak and lone victims to attack. Give them a target which is more than they can chew off.

Tell me what you think!

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SHTF: Where to go?

I read lots of survivalist and preparedness posts about "bug out bags" and "get out of dodge" bags. The idea is to quickly grab your 72 hour or 2 week emergency pack, a trusty firearm, jump in the Mad Max vehicle and hit the high road.

But where do you go then.

The most fortunate have a "retreat" someplace else out of harm's way. This location will be remote, have land fit for growing food and supporting edible wildlife, a permanent shelter, clean replenishing water source, and adequately covered to avoid detection.

The next "sort of fortunate group" will have a friend or family member who has a ranch, farm or other rural property with the welcome mat out for select friends and family.

The last group will be the least fortunate. They will be the refugees. They will head for the hills (translation: anywhere rural and outside of their urban or suburban environment) and attempt to live off the land.

In most cases, the land refers to..

..Any small towns and facilities including grocery stores, restaurants, hospitals, etc...

and/or any farm or ranch which happens to be in their path.

First the refugee will ask for water, directions, a piece of open ground or a some food. As they become emboldened, they will act more like locusts, straining local resources to point of breaking. Eventually, remaining towns and villages will blockade roads in and out of town to preserve what little they have left.

Some refugees will be more creative or downright dastardly. They will target state and national parks and take over cabins, shelters and campsites and convert them to permanent dwellings.

Yet others will claim empty vacation homes, lake houses and fishing and hunting camps. Some will resort to violence when the rightful owners arrive. Some will use violence to take the home or camp site in the first place. These refugees will have graduated to "raider" status at this point.

So where can you go so you will not degenerate into this sort of pariah?

First, rural and remote are is the right description for what you are looking for.

My advice is to find a county within 100-150 miles of your front door. Google real estate agents in those target counties who specialize in "rural land, vacation homes, farms and ranches". This will help you avoid the Century Remax agent looking to sell you a 3/2 with garage in a community of 22,000 residents with good schools.

Search for a minimal 2-5 acre parcel of land preferably with water (might be a stock pond, creek, lake or river access), some elevation, local game and fenced.

Visit the land and get a feel for it. Is there some sort of road access? What is on the adjoining acreage? Farm? Ranch? Meth lab?

If you like the land then how you buy it is your business, but my advice is to consider it an investment and part of your retirement savings.

Once purchased, search Craig's list for a used travel trailer. I just checked and there are plenty of fifth wheel models available. Haul one out there and camouflage it well on your land.

Bring out some barrels of water and store with your trailer. If you feel adventurous, consider caching supplies on the land, but a better be would be to rent a storage space in a nearby town.

Stock the storage space with..
- Shelf stable food like canned goods, dry foods, rice, beans, etc.
- Long term storage food like the Ultimate Family Preparedness Pak.
- Water, water filters, water storage, bleach.
- Home supplies like pots, pans, cleaning materials.
- Clothes.
- Tools, garden supplies, seeds, and fertilizer.
- Protection equipment.
- Medical supplies and medicines.

Put the supplies in water proof containers like Rubbermaid totes. This will also keep the bugs out.

If worse comes to worse and you cannot get a trailer, purchase several high quality tents and plenty of camping gear and stock some building material in your storage shelter. Perhaps you can put together a temporary shelter which would sure beat being in the radioactive wasteland of the big city.


Yes, this is not a casual endeavor. It will take some planning and budgeting. However, I know several people who have done this or are in the process of putting together a similar retreat as we speak. It is far better than "living of the land". Like a locust.

Tell me what you think!

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SHTF: Suburbs - Should I stay or should I go?

Welcome Woodpile Readers! Thanks for stopping by and please visit again!


Big fracas today over on TB2K about whether one should stay in the suburbs after the SHTF or flee to a pre-positioned rural location... see if here..

A lot of hotheads and hotter opinions being expressed which is a shame, because both sides are missing the real problem.

First, more people, I would hazard to guess without looking at census information, live in urban and suburban locales rather than in true rural areas.

And with the national and international scene being what it is, more and more of these suburban dwellers today are developing the prepper mindset like their rural prepping counterparts do which is "How do I prepare for what if?".

That being the case, the real problem is "how do suburban dwellers responsibly and creatively prepare for TEOTWAWKI without planning on becoming a burden to their country pals?".

Here are a few of my plans/suggestions that might be of value to the suburban dweller post-TEOTWAWKI.

1) Prep now. Buy lots of non-perishable foods, storage equipment, tools, supplies, etc. now while prices are reasonable and stocks are high. For instance, this weekend the wife and I invested in more storage buckets, water filters, OTC medicines, vitamins and other essential stuff.

"Do you really have enough food stocked when the SHTF?"

2) Put a plan in place for Day One of the SHTF for your home and family. How to get from point a to point b. Communications. Safety. Transportation.

3) Can you disguise your presence in the neighborhood? Some of these suggestions have to be done beforehand while others they day of SHTF..
a) Have measured pieces cut now and plywood over exterior visible windows from the street and rear of house once the trouble starts.
b) Erect the highest fence around the exterior rear of your property as allowed by the city and neighborhood association. (Do this now).
c) Move running vehicles to rear of home or into garage. Cover over garage windows with more plywood ( have that plywood ready now). Back cars into garage and be able to open doors manually if forced to evacuate.
d) Consider leaving one, partially disassembled vehicle in front of the house. Put it on blocks or jacks or flattened tires.
e) Put a pink or yellow typewritten piece of paper on the front door which declares the property is foreclosed and uninhabitable. (Before the emails start.. I know, a piece of paper is not going to stop a determined group of illiterate gang bangers. Rather, it is part of a complete illusion.. work with me).
f) Put a sign in the yard which states the house is foreclosed as well. See above.
g) Limit activity and leave and come only through the rear of the property. Let no sign or presence be known i.e. generators, bar-b-que grills, etc.

4) Devise a defensive strategy for your home. Early warning alarms, (can be as simple as trip wires and cans), peepholes, viewpoints, sniper nests, diversions, reinforce exterior walls, create an interior saferoom, fall back positions and escape routes. Besides your favorite firearms, purchase a number of inexpensive weapons for backups and handouts to those joining you. I particularly prefer the SKS as it is inexpensive, can take a lot of punishment and is relatively easy to use.

5) Connect with other neighbors. This is tricky because unless you know your neighbors real well, they may or may not be reliable in a scrape. I fully expect most of my neighbors to collapse under the strain or flee before hand. That being the case, my presence will be as low as possible and I plan on using any left behind resources as possible.

6) Get a replenishing water source. I am a big proponent of sand point drilled wells for suburban situations. Of course your water table must be taken into consideration and if a hand dug or sand point well is out of the question, you are going to need, at minimum, the following:
a) a creek, river or lake on your property.
b) lots of bleach, filters and fuel for boiling. (solar panel, batteries and hot plate work too).
c) Big storage like multi hundred gallon containers or cistern.
d) rain water catchment system.

Remember, your rural friends will have this same consideration as well. Just having a well on a rural property does not mean an unlimited, uninterrupted supply of water.

7) Once the back yard is hidden from view as best as possible, expand your garden. Start on this now. I have been gardening edibles for years and it is something learned over time not the day after the SHTF.
Along those lines, stock plenty of seeds, (multiple years), hand tools, fertilizer and build at least one large composting area (I have two).

8) Lay out areas where additional gardening can be done. For instance, nearby vacant lots, golf courses, abandoned backyards, etc.
Remember, most of these areas will be overgrown in a few weeks. Pick out a spot as far from view as possible and surrounded by higher weeds or grass. Create a 6 x 6 garden square, till, replenish the soil and plant. Surround with chicken wire. Leave a couple of empty five gallon buckets in the enclosure to catch rain water. Check a few times a week under cover of darkness or in early morning hours and tend.
If possible, plant fruit trees in back yard. Drive or walk your neighborhood and catalog existing fruit trees and types. I have found over two dozen good producers in my neighborhood. Know how to prune and tend to these trees after the original owners have "moved on".

9) Stock up now on anything needed to preserve food including a couple of dehydrators, canning jars (and lids!), spices for jerky, etc. Target had a starter home canning system available for less than 40.00 this weekend. That is a fast food lunch for a family of five. No excuses why you have not bought this type of hardware.

10) Get solar panels and deep storage batteries. You are not powering a fridge and clothing dryer, but a few basic appliances and communications gear. A battery powered hotplate emits no smoke like a grill or fireplace. My suggestion is to check online for panels or try a Fry's if they have them where you live. Fry's had 85 watt panels on sale not too long ago. A simple home system is not that hard to set up (or tear down and hide if need be). My neighbor has four panels he rolls out onto his side-of-house driveway on sunny days and uses them to power his workshop tools.

11) You don't have to be in the country to have livestock. Most municipalities allow homeowners to have a few chickens or rabbits. Mine allows me up to 6 hens and one rooster. I can also have goats and rabbits as long as they are not a nuisance. Better to have two laying hens now than none the day after.

12) Plan an escape route and fall back position. No plan, suburban or rural is perfect. You may have to flee as well. Have a plan.

I have a choice. For right now i am staying in the suburbs. I know the area and I have my supplies in tact. Your plan may be completely opposite, but any plan is better than having no plan at all.

SHTF: Where is your survival retreat?

I had a dream the other night that the end had finally come (What else do we dream about? :)). The family across the street went to grandfather's ranch. The couple next door went to their lake house. Wife's friend and family went to family farm.

We had no where to go.

All relatives were either long gone or lived in urban areas. Nobody to go to and no one who could take us in.

I have always believed in "bugging in" first as part of my survival preparedness plans. Why? Because this is where my supplies are. I know the area, where supplies may be available, what plants and food grows best here and the people around me.

However, all of us in the preparedness world need to consider a fall back, well out of town retreat should the big one happen.

For instance, if there is a nuclear, chemical or biological attack.
If there is a pandemic.
If there is wide spread social breakdown, rioting, looting and unleashed crime.

Staying in an urban area would be the worse idea in those situations.

How to get out of town is one thing which i will not cover here.

But where to go, your survival retreat is the first problem needed to be solved.

A survival retreat can be a few acres of land a couple of hours out of town. It may be a hunting lease or fishing camp. Perhaps the corner of some family property someone still has mineral rights for.

To prepare for your survival retreat, check local listings within two hours of your town for rural properties for sale. A house, farm or shelter is not neccessary if money is tight. Rather, find five or more acres with access to running water for starters.

When checking the property, count the number of ways in. Is there a farm to market road? Dirt road? Uphill or downhill? Trails? Rocky or difficult terrain? After all, when you go to your retreat might be in bad whether or in the winter.

How about that water supply? Is it a running stream, river or creek? Or a dried up stock tank? Access to a river is ideal as it can supply drinking, bathing, washing water and a potential food source.

So your survival retreat has all these things? What next? Well where would you live?

Consider a portable travel trailer for starters. Or maybe a used mobile home. Or a do it your self cabin kit.

Any of these cost affective options are good, but the priority should be on inexpensive and portable. Why?

Because you may only visit your survival retreat a few times a year. Rural properties left unattended are often the targets of vandalism, crime and potentially squaters. Wouldn't it stink to find a family of meth heads camped out in your 250,000.00 dollar retreat shelter?

Also, consider finding a storage space in a nearby town to pre-place supplies. Things like water filters, camp furniture, sleeping gear, cooking equipment including a stove and fuel, long term storage food, "defensive equipment" and other necessities which will not go bad or expire.

I don't think anyone should place needed supplies at their retreat unless they are well hidden in caches onsite. But that is my opinion.

The catch is how to pay for something like a survival retreat. Consider a rural home or property loan. Or use part of your retirement savings. Remember, land nearly always increases and maintains its value. It might be a good financial investment.

Finally, know how long it takes to get to your survival retreat and how much fuel will be needed. Maintain that stock at all times. Keep supplies close at hand and ready to load should you have to leave home with little notice. And always have more than one route to your retreat. Preferably off the main roads and beaten track.