Prepare: START Treaty will probably pass

The latest Washington DC treaty to lower the number of nuclear weapons the US possesses, START, will probably pass the Senate today. The treaty will limit the number of nuclear warheads for both the USA and Russian Federation to 1500 (down from 2250) and the number of launchers to 800 total land, sea and air.

START will also resume inspections by both sides of each other's nuclear arsenal and launchers.

A number of characters will be doing a happy dance when this treaty gets passed.

Here is what is not covered in the START treaty.

- There is nothing in the treaty about the number of nuclear weapons and launchers that China can have, nor about any sort of inspection for their growing nuclear arsenal.

- There is nothing in the treaty about limiting new countries from obtaining nuclear weapons. Right now the list of countries who have produced crude weapons or are working dillegently on them includes North Korea, Venezuela, Myamar, and Iran.

- There is nothing in the treaty which limits the USA or Russia from assisting another country with the construction or design of nuclear weapons. Further, there is nothing in the treaty which limits either country from new military treaties which can be used to increase the potential nuclear offensive capability of a new alliance.

- There is nothing about the treaty first inspecting the working capability of either country and places limits based upon that capability. Thus, one country may only have 600 functioning launchers meaning this treaty is only window dressing.

 - There is nothing in this treaty which addresses the real potential cause for nuclear war which is a terrorist organization, backed by legitimate states, using nuclear devices against the USA or Russia.

At this point, the USA and Russia have successfully, over the past twenty years, reduced the number of functioning nuclear weapons and launchers they both have. That's great if the largest problem in the world is the potential of a nuclear war between the USA and the Russian Federation.

However, in 2010, this situation is not the problem the world faces today.

The real issue with nuclear proliferation today is not between the USA and Russia, but with dozens of other nations which are actively and agressively working on building nuclear capability. If the USA and Russia eliminate too much of their working nuclear deterrent, they may find themselves in the near future at the mercy of a collaboration between nuclear armed terror groups and rogue nations or even a growing nuclear armed nation like China.

At some point, those doing the happy dance with the signature of this START treaty had better start recognizing that the real danger comes from those not in the room on signing day.