Prepare: World Food Prices and Shortages

China has to increase its domestic production of corn, rice and wheat to meet demand for 2011.

The US still supplies two thirds of the world's corn exports, but with oil at $84 a barrel, may be tempted to divert corn oil to biofuel.

South America and Russia have had weather problems which are leading to lower crop yields.

The dollar is weaker than it was two years ago making its purchasing power less.

Read more here and here.

What does it all mean?

In 2007, rice shortages led to riots in other countries. The rising price of food, which immediately effects one fifth of the worlds population due to poverty, leads to shortages and domestic disturbances.

Remember the shortage of rice in the markets a few years ago?

If - key word - you can, it might be a good time to  stock up on staples like rice, corn meal and flour as all may go up dramatically in price. Rice should always be purchased in 25 or 50 pound bags. Flour is good to buy in bulk, but consider a grain mill and purchasing wheat as flour begins to go rancid once it has been milled.

As always, store wheat and rice in buckets and seal them up good - they should last for years.

If is the key word. Don't go into debt or panic buy because of the news. Purchase only what you can safely afford and what you will eat.

Watch the news carefully in 2011 regarding food supplies, prices and the price of oil. These be real trends to watch next year.

SHTF: Food Riots

The spectre of food riots comes up in everyone's minds when considering preparedness and disaster. Generally, in the fiction world, an "event" happens (nuclear war, EMP, financial crisis, etc) and the mobs decend upon the grocery store and riots break out. It's good imagination footage for the reader to enjoy.

In the real world, food riots occur after the shortage conditions have arrived and the government or private organization attempts to bring in food supplies in an unorganized and destabilized environment. The helicopters land or trucks arrive, the crowds break impromptu barriers and relief workers are overwhelmed. Food riots ensue.

For preparedness sake, the possible scenario of food riots in the US would be a combination of the two.

A few scenarios..

An event takes place that would lead to the disruption of supply chains. That could be a natural disaster but on a national level, a massive terrorist attack on our infrastructure, or a war.

Another would be a financial meltdown which would paralyze key components of the food chain - farmers refusing to take credit payments for crops, truckers refusing to deliver goods, feed lots refusing to release stock, etc.

The second "shoe" would drop when stocks drop in stores. That means all stores including grocery, big box wholesale, fast food and all restaurants and even convinience stores.

At first, people would get by on what they had, but after a certain amount of time, one or two weeks at most, people would get antsy and start going to the market daily and waiting or listening to the news for food distribution in their area.

This is America. For all the law abiding folk, and for all the ones who are willing and ready to wait in line for an agreed amount of emergency food, a limit on grocery purchases or the need to cooperate, there is a huge segment who thinks otherwise.

Look at it this way. How many times have you been to the bank or any other place where you had to wait in line, and three people in front of you is the person with "the story"? About how they lost their driver's license or how they have 14 people at home who are sick or how they meant to have the paperwork in order but they left their only pen in their cousin's car?

Or how many people in America will think that because of their position or personal opinion of their importance will think that lines and rations are for "other people"?

Finally, how many borderline criminals exist in the USA? Not just the typical gang and thug members. But how many people swipe a few things from work, fudge their taxes, allow the clerk to give them too much change and walk away feeling entitled to their windfall?

All of these folk will be in the food lines as well and when they arrive and start trouble, there will be problems. They will demand, push and force their way to the front of the line. They will want more than they are allocated. They will see a shortage as an opportunity and demean all others around them.

Depending upon the severity of authorities' response, many innocent people will get hurt. And further supplies will not be forthcoming or recipients will be required to register at their local FEMA camp for ongoing meals.

Therefore, the same conclusion applies. 

- Stock food now. Many types of food, like rice, beans, flour, yeast, generic canned vegetables and fruit are cheap and everything is available now at the store.

- Don't get caught up in the food riots. When trouble starts, get away.

- Don't make the idea of shortages force action when it's too late.

- Finally, don't let others know what you have. Join the lines, get the ration cards, buy the allowed limit (as long as personal freedom is not limited) but don't let others see you "not" taking part as you have enough food at home. Others will visit your home if they think you are "hoarding".

- Make plans to get away from urban centers when food runs low. There is no more dangerous place to be.

Quick tips for the SHTF garden

You hear this a lot...

"We are going to put in a garden on our property and grow our own veggies and fruit once things go downhill.."

"Just put in a garden and grow your own food in a small space!"

"Anyone can put in a container garden and have their own food once the SHTF, right?"

I have bad news for the novice gardener, it is not that easy to plant a producing garden if you have never done it before. What's more, there is no worse time to learn how to grown your own food if the poop has hit the fan.

So, the time to get started is now. It is summer in most parts of the country and there is no reason to not start growing at least some of your own food now. Be prepared: it will take some work and effort to get your garden underway and producing.

- The fastest way to start is with containers and already sprouted plants like the ones sold at the garden stores and big box retailers.
- Avoid using the black plastic pots the plants are sold in. They capture too much ambient heat which stresses the plant and evaporates the moisture in the soil faster.
- Replant only in high quality soil. I cannot stress this enough. Do not use any soil sold in a bag or worse, unfortified soil from the yard.
- To make your own potting or bed soil, use a high quality base soil for your area, add compost and vermiculite.
- Raised beds work better than planting direct into ground.
- Water in the morning. Water in the heat of the day burns off before it can help the plants. Water in the evening can produce mold on some plants.
- Water deeply container plants daily and raised beds a couple of times a week.
- Use natural fertilizers like fish emulsion and green sand. Make insect repellents from hot peppers and garlic.
- Work natural compost into your beds and containers often; it replaces the nutrients in the soil.
- Mulch beds using friendly bedding material like alfalfa grass. I purchased a bail at the local farmers market and had enough for my entire tomato bed.
- Grow what works local. For instance, tomatoes, corn and melons grow well in my area while asparagus, broccoli and lettuce does not. Post-SHTF is not the time to experiment with potential failed crops.
- Camouflage your garden space. Surround the borders of your yard with weeds, overgrown bushes and native plants. Grow food as landscaping. Grow herbs in the front or side yards where passersby will think they are wild growth or weeds.
- Fruit trees take 3-5 years or longer before they produce edible fruit. Plant dwarf versions now. If possible, put in large containers on wheels so they can be brought in during cold weather. I have a producing orange tree I keep in this manner and have done so for over 10 years.
- Experiment with seeds only after you have successfully grown from plantings. Start with small pots filled with top quality soil and replant in beds or larger containers. Herbs are best to start with.
- Corn is an excellent and fast grower, however it rapidly depletes the soil. Be ready to grown rye or another nitrogen replacement crop during cooler months in your corn patch.
- I have never had much luck with fruits or vegetables grown in doors. Maybe your experience is different.
- Certain food crops can be grown during the winter months like garlic, onions, and kale.
- Finally, don't bother gardening if you have not learned how to store your surplus with canning, drying and dehydrating!

Rice? What rice? What price rice?

Rice is a staple food eaten all over the world. The top producers of rice are:

China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Brazil and Japan.

Of these countries, only Thailand and Vietnam export (send out of the country) any measurable amounts. The third largest exporter of rice is the United States and by the numbers, is not in the top ten producing countries.

China and India consume much of their production. The Philippines cannot produce enough to meet demand and must import a certain amount of rice annually.

Rice is inexpensive, nutritious and filling. It can be used a main dish and augmented with other foods such as meat and vegetables to create a healthy meal.

And now the problem.

Because of demand, weather and costs, rice has become difficult to buy. Check out this story from Costco's CEO. This is taking place in the U.S. Not some third world country, but here.

The demand for rice is outstripping the supply. As I said, there are many causes. A healthier economy in Asia. A colder than expected winter in China and Vietnam. Higher demand from third world nations. Even commodity speculation.

With so few countries exporting, then the other shoe drops. India announces that they are curtailing their exports to keep prices low at home. Thailand, which usually holds a large surplus, has found itself with a three month supply and multiple customers including oil-rich, cash in hand nations like Iran shopping for a dwindling supply.

Food, once considered a boring commodity, is now a hot resource, much like petroleum and precious metals.

How does this affect us?

Rice, like wheat, constitutes a large part of our preparedness stores. At our home, we regularly keep 100 to 400 pounds of rice on hand in storage buckets. I recently checked at our Costco and found no rice in stock at all, save for the 10 lb bags of basmati rice which is not a big favorite at our house.

Rice, which used to be cheap and could be counted on as an everyday and emergency food stock is now hard to obtain and more costly when available. This can seriously hurt our preparedness plans.

What can we do?

First, we are facing a demand problem and not necessarily a shortage. Rice is available, but it might be hard to find.

Second, the time to buy was last year, but the time to buy is also now before the shipments stop and there are no restocks.

A few suggestions;

- Purchase smaller bags (1, 2 and 5lb) from your grocer.
- Check big box retailers like Walmart. Often they have the big bags like Costco or Sams.
- Check with Asian and Middle Eastern retailers. I would buy 25 and 50 lb bags from the Asian market near our house anyway. Also check the Hispanic oriented supermarkets if they are in your town.
- Keep an eye out at Sams and Costco. Ask the manager when shipments may arrive. According to the news, new stock arrives daily.
- Buy in reason. There is no need to snatch every 50lb bag you see. Buy what you can afford and reasonably store.
- Store what you buy, eat what you store.
- Consider other grains which may be in stock.

A note.

There have been a number of news articles about food shortages and riots. So far, this has not happened in the U.S. yet and I don't see it happening for some time.

Also, there is plenty to eat (real long term storage food) in the markets. I have not seen the all edged shortages of flour, sugar, salt or yeast some are hysterically reporting nor have my retailers placed any limits on purchases.

Finally, the government has not issued a statement on the rice demand. When the government issues a statement like "please limit purchases" or worse, "we have implemented price controls and rationing", then you have a real problem on your hand.

That does not mean to say that you should not continue to store food. On the contrary, we prepare for all eventualities which includes short term shortages such as what we are experiencing in addition to more serious events.